How the Associated Press is preparing to call the most unique election in US history
Video above: A look at the important swing states in the 2020 election
Two centuries of election cycles in the United States could not have prepared the country for what 2020 held in store.
A deadly pandemic. Millions of mail-in ballots. Unprecedented early voter turnout. Stadium-sized polling places.
Despite that, Election Day operations at the Associated Press will remain largely unchanged as it uses its 174 years of experience, experts in race-calling and nearly 5,000 stringers around the country to collect data from county offices and election precincts to help call the most unique general election in U.S. history.
Julie Pace, Washington bureau chief at the Associated Press, said that although 2020 has presented unconventional circumstances, the way AP calculates numbers from precincts, collects data from counties across the country and uses history as a barometer makes Election Day 2020 not terribly different from any other.
The AP맥스카지노s election team members throughout the year have reviewed their procedures, as they saw the vast increase in mail-in and early voting. They also will adjust for states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which do not count mail-in ballots until Election Day.
맥스카지노It is something that we prepare for for months, and frankly, kind of a year or more in advance,맥스카지노 Pace said. 맥스카지노We certainly anticipated that there would be some increase in mail-in and early voting, because we've just seen the trend lines moving in that direction. But we didn't expect that it would be at the level.
맥스카지노But we have a setup that looks pretty similar this year to what we have had in the past years.맥스카지노
The Associated Press will use terms such as 맥스카지노too close to call맥스카지노 and 맥스카지노too early to call맥스카지노 when approaching decisions about races. In a departure from past elections, 맥스카지노precincts reporting맥스카지노 will likely be kept out of AP맥스카지노s playbook.
Pace said the term has been rendered inconsequential in a pandemic election and can 맥스카지노give a false impression맥스카지노 of the numbers, particularly in states that have used stadiums as voting sites.
맥스카지노That could be one precinct, but it's a massive precinct,맥스카지노 Pace said. 맥스카지노So and then in the county next to it, you could have a very, very tiny precinct. That's two precincts reporting, but it gives you a completely skewed view of how much of the vote is in. It's just not very precise.맥스카지노
As for making race calls throughout the night, here맥스카지노s a look at what to expect to hear from the Associated Press.
맥스카지노Too early to call맥스카지노
The AP will use this term when there is not enough information to make a decision. That could be, for example, because they know they still need data from a large county that could influence a race.
It맥스카지노s an acknowledgement that while they have collected some data, 맥스카지노we might be right, we might get to that point, but right now, it맥스카지노s too early,맥스카지노 Pace said.
맥스카지노Too close to call맥스카지노
Pace said the AP will use 맥스카지노too close to call맥스카지노 as a final or near-final description of a race. She said using 맥스카지노too close to call맥스카지노 accounts for states that, for example, have automatic recount options. States make their own rules about how close a race must be in order to trigger a recount or recanvass of ballots.
맥스카지노If the race gets into that territory, we don't call it,맥스카지노 Pace said. 맥스카지노Sometimes we think we might be able to 맥스카지노 we feel pretty good about where things are, but we don't want to get involved in a recount. So that becomes a 맥스카지노too close to call맥스카지노 race.맥스카지노
Video: Rossen Reports: How safe is voting in person?
No projections
Differing from many media outlets around the country, the AP will not project winners of any races.
맥스카지노We only declare winners,맥스카지노 Pace said.
She said it맥스카지노s part of building trust among readers that once the AP makes a call, it was the correct call 맥스카지노 and one that isn맥스카지노t being held up by any recounts, legal challenges or outstanding vote-counting that could sway it.
맥스카지노We only want to (declare a winner) once,맥스카지노 she said. 맥스카지노It's really part of trying to build confidence in our race call and give people confidence that when the AP says that this person is the winner, that they really are.맥스카지노
Declaring a winner
Pace said declaring a winner on election night will depend largely on the margins of difference in each state and race.
She cautioned that not declaring a winner that night is not an indication of voter fraud.
맥스카지노We do not have a history in this country of voter fraud,맥스카지노 she said. 맥스카지노There are little pockets of issues that pop up in some states, but in terms of widespread voter fraud, that's just not something that we have experienced here (and) it's not something that we are projecting for this year.맥스카지노
Waiting to call a race, she said, likely means there is more information that needs to be sorted out, such as a recount or recanvass or a legal challenge that halted counting or extended voting.
맥스카지노I would really implore people to keep that in mind,맥스카지노 Pace said. 맥스카지노I think there could be a lot of misinformation that fills the void between polls closing and making a race call, if it does extend for a day or several days. But almost certainly, it just means that the process is playing out.맥스카지노
History as an indicator
Pace said the 2020 presidential race presents an interesting dynamic. States that are not historically swing states appear to be leaning that way, such as Georgia, Arizona and Texas.
The history of how a state votes overall can be taken into consideration when making calls, but Pace said the AP also must whittle down to pockets within those states.
맥스카지노You look at ways that key areas might be voting compared to other key areas in other states,맥스카지노 she said. 맥스카지노So, yes, the Atlanta suburbs have been shifting in the last couple of years 맥스카지노 look at that historical trend. But you also can compare suburbs in Atlanta to suburbs in other states and watch for that.맥스카지노
History gives the AP a good place to start, particularly when accounting for the outstanding votes. If, for example, a county in the Florida panhandle that President Donald Trump won with 90% of the vote in 2016 remains outstanding on election night 2020, the AP can reasonably call that county for Trump, Pace said.
Preparation and execution
Just before AP맥스카지노s team started working from home, Pace said, the team got a general election trial run on Super Tuesday.
Then, the pandemic struck.
Pace said the AP맥스카지노s election team has gotten ample practice in communicating virtually during the coronavirus pandemic. They have been working from home since mid-March, including during the primaries, many of which got pushed back as a result of the pandemic.
A small group will work from the Washington bureau on Election Day.
맥스카지노I do think the communication and making sure that we have all of the technical infrastructure that we have in the bureau in position (is important) because those race calls and our coverage of them is so critical.맥스카지노
For more information on how the AP calculates votes, uses polling data and more,