The Fed can맥스카지노t figure out what맥스카지노s happening with the job market
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve signaled last month that they were considering a pause in their 14-month-long regimen of hiking interest rates to cool the economy and bring down inflation.
Related video above: Economy: Debt limit looms; inflation concerns
But the U.S. economy is like an engine that won맥스카지노t quit 맥스카지노 it just keeps on pumping out jobs. New data out Wednesday showed that job openings and hiring both rose in April, while unemployment . With just two weeks left until the central bank맥스카지노s next policy decision, it appears that more rate hikes could be coming after all.
Investors 맥스카지노 already contending with the fallout from the banking crisis, the lingering effects of debt ceiling turmoil and economic slowdowns in China and Europe 맥스카지노 aren맥스카지노t very happy about that prospect.
What맥스카지노s happening
The number of available jobs in the United States rose in April after .
Job openings climbed to 10.1 million in April, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists were expecting about 9.4 million, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv.
There are now 1.77 openings for every job seeker, the BLS data show. Hiring activity also grew and layoffs dropped in April.
Job growth is healthy and that맥스카지노s good for the economy. Business and consumer sentiment remain resilient and spending and investment are also proving to be relatively robust. But this could be another case of 맥스카지노good news is bad news맥스카지노 for the Federal Reserve.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he wants to see more slack in the labor market. If there맥스카지노s an imbalance between labor supply and demand, he says, wages will rise and add to upward pressure on prices.
More data is expected before the Fed next decides on interest rates on June 14, including the closely-watched government jobs report Friday and the Consumer Price Index for May due June 13.
Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said on Wednesday that a pause at the June meeting wouldn맥스카지노t mean that hikes are finished but would instead give central bank officials more time to assess the state of the economy.
맥스카지노A decision to hold our policy rate constant at a coming meeting should not be interpreted to mean that we have reached the peak rate for this cycle,맥스카지노 said Jefferson in a speech. 맥스카지노Indeed, skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming.맥스카지노
Also complicating matters: The Fed맥스카지노s favorite inflation gauge . The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 4.4% for the 12 months ended in April, up from a 4.2% increase seen in March, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.
맥스카지노It remains to be seen whether the Fed is prepared to pause or skip a rate hike at a forthcoming meeting,맥스카지노 said Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick. 맥스카지노While the Fed is still talking like it is on the inflation righting warpath, the resilience and strength of the job market have been remarkable.맥스카지노
Markets are currently placing the probability of a quarter percentage point rate hike in June only at about 30%, according to . That맥스카지노s up from around 0% in mid-May. Prior to Jefferson맥스카지노s speech, markets were pricing in a 70% chance.
맥스카지노After last month맥스카지노s meeting, it seemed certain that the word change signaled that the Fed was on pause,맥스카지노 said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA research.
맥스카지노However, due to stronger-than-expected economic reports, stickier-than-anticipated inflation readings, and increasingly hawkish Fedspeak, we now see the [Fed] postponing its pause and raising rates by [a quarter percentage point],맥스카지노 he said.
The bottom line
Uncertainty seems to be the name of the game right now. 맥스카지노Markets may wish for a Fed pivot, but we believe that hope is not a strategy,맥스카지노 said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. 맥스카지노Of course,맥스카지노 he added, 맥스카지노that could change at any time.맥스카지노
Debt ceiling deal makes its way to the Senate
The House of Representatives passed the deal to suspend the nation맥스카지노s debt ceiling through Jan. 1, 2025, late on Wednesday night. The final tally for the vote was 314 to 117.
The bill now needs to be passed by the Senate before it can be sent to President Joe Biden to be signed into law.
It맥스카지노s not yet clear when the Senate will vote, but Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters on Wednesday that he hopes the Senate will finish voting on the debt ceiling agreement on Thursday or Friday
맥스카지노Tonight, the House took a critical step forward to prevent a first-ever default and protect our country맥스카지노s hard-earned and historic economic recovery,맥스카지노 Biden said in a statement moments after the House voted. 맥스카지노This budget agreement is a bipartisan compromise. Neither side got everything it wanted. That맥스카지노s the responsibility of governing.맥스카지노
But while Biden celebrated the news, investors weren맥스카지노t as excited. Stock futures inched up immediately after the bill passed through the House but quickly dropped down again. They were narrowly higher early on Thursday.
That could be because of lingering concerns about its passage through the Senate, but also because other worries are likely to return center stage.
Economic problems in China have been rattling US markets.
Factory activity in China dropped to new lows for the second month in a row, fueling investor fears that the country맥스카지노s post-Covid economic boom is ending. American CEOs, including JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon and Tesla head Elon Musk, have flocked to China this week to assess the risks to their investments in the country.
Dimon for president?
Jamie Dimon is arguably the most powerful man in corporate America. He may be eying political power, too.
Normally, Dimon is quick to shoot down speculation that he could run for office. But in an interview with released on Wednesday, Dimon didn맥스카지노t rule it out.
Asked if he맥스카지노s ever considered a public office position, Dimon said: 맥스카지노I love my country, and maybe one day I맥스카지노ll serve my country in one capacity or another.맥스카지노
Dimon, 67, stressed that he맥스카지노s focused on running JPMorgan, a role that has become even more complex amid the banking crisis and the ongoing debate over the debt ceiling, .
맥스카지노I love what I do,맥스카지노 Dimon told Bloomberg, adding he맥스카지노s 맥스카지노quite happy맥스카지노 in his current job. He noted JPMorgan does a 맥스카지노great job helping Americans, for helping countries around the world.맥스카지노
In 2016, Dimon said he맥스카지노d 맥스카지노love to be president맥스카지노 but added it맥스카지노s 맥스카지노too hard and too late맥스카지노 for him to do that.