다중회귀분석에 의한 실선의 표류력 추정 (Estimation of drift force by real ship using multiple regression analysis)

시험선의 표류 속도 및 방향에 대한 1차식 선형회귀모형 분석에서는 설명변수인 바람 및 해조류가 응답변수(표류속도, 방향)에 미치는 요소는 방향보다 풍속 및 유속이 큰 것으로 나타났고, 다중회귀 모형 분산분석결과에서 분산 및 공분산에서는 동일하게 풍향 및 유향에서 그 값이 컸다. 공분산 분석회귀 모형 분산분석결과에서 분산 및 공분산을 통해 표류속도는 양(+)의 관계임에 반해 표류방향은 음(-)의 상관관계를 예측할 수 있었고 시험선을 이용한 표류 속도 및 방향의 예측 값들은 바람보다 해조류에 의해 그 영향이 크게 나타났으나, 차후 지속적인 관측결과를 비교하는 것이 필요하다고 판단된다.

In this study, a drifting test using a experimental vessel (2,966 tons) in the northern waters of Jeju was carried out for the first time in order to obtain the fundamental data for drift. During the test, it was shown that the average leeway speed and direction by GPS position were 0.362 m/s and 155.54° respectively and the leeway rate for wind speed was 8.80%. The analysis of linear regression modes about leeway speed and direction of the experimental vessel indicated that wind or current (i.e. explanatory variable) had a greater influence upon response variable (e.g. leeway speed or direction) with the speed of the wind and current rather than their directions. On the other hand, the result of multiple regression model analysis was able to predict that the direction was negative, and it was demonstrated that predicted values of leeway speed and direction using an experimental vessel is to be more influential by current than wind while the leeway speed through variance and covariance was positive. In terms of the leeway direction of the experimental vessel, the same result of the leeway speed appeared except for a possibility of the existence of multi-collinearity. Then, it can be interpreted that the explanatory variables were less descriptive in the predicted values of the leeway direction. As a result, the prediction of leeway speed and direction can be demonstrated as following equations.
= 0.4031-0.0032 +0.0631 -0.0010 +0.4110  = 0.4031-0.6662 +27.1955 -0.6787 -420.4833 However, many drift tests using actual vessels and various drifting objects will provide reasonable estimations, so that they can help search and rescue fishing gears as well.