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As national R&D projects increase quantitatively, an effective R&D system must be established to commercialize R&D technologies, and continuous and systematic verification of R&D performance is required. The size of forest R&D projects, the subject of this study, also shows an increasing trend every year, requiring objective and reasonable verification of research results. This study investigates the effect of research input on royalty by hierarchically analyzing the causal relationship with research results as an outcomes index according to forest R&D input factors. It evaluates the effect of the research input scale (research fund, research period, research personnel), which is an input index of national R&D projects, on economic performance (royalty), and thus is a research outcome regarding scientific performance (article), and technical performance (patent).
To ensure the reliability of causal analysis between research input factors and performance, research data utilizes objective results that are linked to research tasks and performance-related indicators provided by the National Science and Technology Information Service (NTIS). Hierarchical regression analy sis is conducted to verify the significance of the mediating factor. In this study, hierarchical regression analysis was employed to identify significant variables and to verify the mediating effect of papers and patents in establishing the causal relationship between the size of research input and the dependent variable, i.e., technical fee. Moreover, mediated regression analysis was conducted to check the parameters' significance, and the indirect effect's significance was verified to confirm the results' reliability.
According to the verification results, The analysis reveals that the number of researchers has a significant impact on all three variables, i.e., papers, patents, and technology fees. Additionally, patents also show a significant influence on technology fees. The factors that significantly affect royalty, which are economic performance, are participating research personnel and patents. Therefore, it is confirmed that patents have a mediating effect in the effect of research input on technology royalty. In other words, research personnel and patents are significant variables in the hierarchical regression analysis results, and patents have a mediating effect among papers and patents. This explains a research logic model in which research input indicators lead from papers to patents and from patents to technical fees.
Finally, Across all analysis models, the participation of a large number of researchers emerged as the most critical factor. Therefore, to ensure excellent research performance indicators for papers, patents, and technology fees, the top priority should be to secure outstanding research personnel. Additionally, creating technology transfer results as a parameter can help achieve technology commercialization outcomes. In order to increase technology royalty, which is R&D performance, it suggests that stakeholders in R&D projects should secure the number of research personnel as input factors and the number of patents as intermediate output factors.